Waiting for the budget

How to sum up the ‘first 100 days’ of Keir Starmer’s Labour government in one sentence? I would go for the following: waiting for the budget.

While things have not gone entirely to plan for Keir Starmer’s Labour government so far, from policy rows such as the Winter Fuel Payment change to the agonising period of Starmer’s freebies, part of the cause is, surely, everyone just waiting for the budget.

I wouldn’t go as far as saying this waiting period has been a vacuum in terms of UK public policy, nor that the stories about Labour (often regarding political advisors) that have been reported on in the meantime are unimportant.

I sympathise with Stephen Bush’s point that Labour has made some big choices so far, and started to introduce some of its interesting policies. And in terms of the recent Number 10 moves, these are no doubt important to the operation of Starmer’s government, addressing a perceived lack of political adroitness and ensuring everyone in government is working well together.

But in terms of a person’s political judgement being the basis for the success or otherwise of this Labour government, or the substance of what could become Labour’s governing narrative, the focus is surely on the chancellor, Rachel Reeves. The decisions Reeves takes at the end of October will be, I’d bet, the post-election Labour politics we look back upon for some time.

On 30th October, the chancellor will set out the government’s first budget, as well as departmental spending totals for the remainder of this financial year and the next (a spending review will finish in the first half of next year for future years)

Curious as to whether, amid much noise, Labour’s tax fairness measures – non-doms, private schools – are implementable? Wait for the budget. Related, how will Labour raise the money to increase public spending in a number of key areas? Wait for the budget. Interested in when Labour will deliver all of the ‘first steps’ promised before the election? Wait for the budget. Wondering whether the chancellor’s messaging on the importance of public investment will be matched with tweaked fiscal rules? Wait for the budget (at least for the formal confirmation). You get the idea.

So much of Labour’s agenda – fixing public services, increasing economic growth, delivering on ‘securonomics’ – has been waiting on the budget, or at least for the direction this budget will give. Labour’s governing narrative or agenda, which commentators note the lack of, relies on clear fiscal policy. No budget, no direction, no narrative – at least beyond change, service etc.

This Labour government’s political purpose is not entirely reliant upon the chancellor’s decisions, but the budget is absolutely critical to Labour’s chances of policy success (even if a convincing case can be put – as it was here – for monetary policy being the key vehicle, e.g. the Bank of England lowering interest rates over time, and markets having confidence in Labour’s economic management).

In the new double issue of Renewal, a theme was uncertainty about what our expectations for this Labour government really are. Indeed, on tax fairness, economic inequality and ambitions for public services, for some time the Labour story has been of ambiguity; the right motivations, yes, but a lack of clarity of ends and a reluctance to discuss the means (e.g. Labour painting themselves into a corner on taxation).

What’s Labour’s big idea? We’re waiting for the budget to know more.